Calgary Real Estate Board crazy prediction

The Calgary Real Estate Board released it’s annual forecast, as reported by Calgary Herald. This predicting a 2% drop in real estates prices for single-family homes in 2009. I’ve no idea where it comes up with these numbers.

The average MLS sale price is expected to fall to $451,120 for the entire year of sales in 2009 compared with $460,327 in 2008.

Currently though there’s a problem. The average house price is lower than that:

To reach those forecast numbers though, average prices will have to climb from current levels. In December, single-family homes were selling for an average of $417,398

So hang on. If you do it month on month, house prices have fallen from the average in 2008 of $460,327 to $417,398. That is a 10% drop. To get back up to $451,120, that’s an 8.1% rise. So to meet their projection of a 2% drop, prices have to rise by 8%.

There are monthly fluctuations that would mean December is lower. But who is really expecting an 8% rise in prices in 2009?

Where we dissect realtor talk

This blog was created out of frustration with the media and their reporting of the house prices. The news agencies tend to just report documents from the realtors and the realtor agencies. But so often they are merely sales documents trying to get us to keep buying. When the reality is there is evidence to the contrary.

Admittedly this is probably due to me buying a house right now and I can see what is happening in Vancouver. Once that process is over I might pass this blog on to someone else, but for the moment I just have to give my opinion on what I see without crowding out my other blogs.